Economics 8 - Critical Uncertainties and Battlegrounds of the Future

TLDR;

As I ramble on in this indulgent thought experiment, I first want to call out some aspects that I still understand poorly or that remain highly uncertain in the future

The Determinants of the future economy (within decades)

Through my past role in Strategic Planning, I have come to be very fond of a tool called Scenario Planning - a systematic way to look at how the future might play out. I definitely do not have the time or capacity to do this exercise in entirety, but are several major forces that remain uncertain to me, that will shape the economy of the future.

I describe these as Battlegrounds - there are stakeholders, opponents and proponents of both sides - but which will prevail?

*** WIP - Still drafting

Business: Heartless Scale vs Compassionate Niches

Consumers: Luxuriant Global Middle Class vs Conscious Consumption; Experiential vs Material Wealth

Economic: No-growth vs Growth - what will “pump” the economy?; Speed of resource allocation

Policy: Protection vs Predation

TLDR; On a more lighthearted note… Arising from the previous post on the nonsense economy, I prioritise sector importance by what I would do if… I could control the world’s economy. If I were hypothetically able to shape the world to my moral compass…to shape it to what I feel is right. How might I view it? F*** - indulgent, but not necessary….just nice to have. Characterized by Good returns to society, as a want, to live a good life.

Economics 6 - The Rise of the Nonsense Economy

TLDR; As marketing becomes the key differentiator in a world where material functionality is commoditised, there is a real risk of pervasive bullshit (I am yet to read aseminal piece on this). Yet, in the pursuit of growth, capital will continue to flow to such areas. This I term, as the rise of the “Nonsense Economy”. It is the new frontier of rent-seeking behaviour, and detrimental to the economy. If you have been following my previous posts, I sum up many observations which culminate into a phenomena we see today.

Economics 5 - The Shift to Intangibility

TLDR; There are reasons to believe that the previously described trends may not hold true in the future; The gravity of economic activity is shifting away from tangible products, to intangible services. This shift presents big challenges for modern economies - many of which are yet to be addressed properly. Things are Changing As earlier described, from a cyclical point of view - the world is at an inflection point of great change.

Economics 8 - Critical Uncertainties and Battlegrounds of the Future

The Determinants of the future economy (within decades)

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