The spark for this post was the election of President Trump to his second term, and the minor rah rah of emotions that goes along with it. In content and outlook, it mirrors a time when I became a slightly more politically attuned graduate (2016), but more or less felt nothing in this second term. For structural issues remain issues, and change is (I suppose I am now 7 years wiser), acceptably constant.
Neither does human adaptability cease to fail, and I found feeling little, although others around me took a few weeks to digest its outcome.
It is also sensible to expect braver changes, what with Trump attaining a clean sweep of authority and the general (if not widespread and global) angst towards the current “System” of democratic capitalism that has reached a tipping point around the world.
Of various things, I do think the return of American Industrial Policy in manufacturing and general tone of getting stuff done, will continue the element of American Exceptionalism in the coming times. I’m not read enough to suppose on its disadvantages, but the broad direction if executed well seems set.
Indeed, my reddit perusals show that “Tariffs” are a hotbed for slightly hateful discussions (largely democrats calling repubiclans stupid) but my time in Economic Development tells me its a long term play - its not about near term inflationary prices - its about building up American jobs and capabilities (and I assume the nation has this capacity to fill), at time when innovation is on the rise.
The consequences of such policies (if well maintained) which are not felt until much later, and I suspect that would be the case: with the conflation of new industrial drivers such as energy and AI-related technology (quantum, semiconductors) spurring a new age of innovation.
Indeed the tipping points (50:50 voting) come at point of ideological “correction” - when the advantages of the US, Europe perhaps fell too far astray from managing the world’s global affairs (marked by foreign policy, war; and immigration) that they forgot to take care of their own backyards.
The Great Man in the Background
But there is a second character that I’ve also had a quiet fascination on; Albeit less about worship, which many do, but more from an analytical point): The Duke (DOGE) Elon Musk.
History is important, as the perspective helps. I type this as I am in a mood of reignited passion of Napoleon, accompanied by Andrew Robertson’s aptly named book “Napoleon” (do recommend).
But rather than Trump, who I find far less enjoyable to “Read”, instead I was reminded of some elements in Napoleon’s life (although I am only 30% into the book) - but enough to draw parallels with those carrying the “Great Man” complex.
The contexts, are of course, very different. Napoleon’s time in the far more chaotic revolutionary France (which also paved the way for the prodigious rise in rank), Musk’s time in the twilight of Pax Americana and rampant industrial capitalism*; although a far more muted as a tipping point for change.
Where Napoleon wielded his mind like a sabre, through military tactics and prowess ; Musk has gone down the path of dominating the American industrial landscape with SpaceX, Tesla, and forays into AI.
But what has been seen as an unnatural extension into Media in his acquisition of Twitter, is also a parallel i see in Napoleon’s mastery over propaganda and control of power. For an industrialist, it is a rare use to wield the powers of media (and in Napoleonic times, religion) to his own ends. These build on his pre-existing (and encouraged, if not nurtured) cult followings, built from memes, and Tesla stocks. New media of control for a modern age.
A key marker, which Napoleon impressively established within what would be perceived now as a short life - would be lasting institutions. No doubt, Musk’s foray in government efficiency is the tip of a spear into this world. I was reminded by a friend that the biggest changes come from Great Men and less so the institutions - but nonetheless, institutions are perhaps, in and of itself the natural product (greatness, legacy, stability) of such people.
It will be interesting to see how this will play out. Of course, it did not end well for Napoleon, although I continue to be immensely fascinated by his life (and will duly finish the book)
And so it is shall be, that imperialism is not decided by consequest and gunpower, but by the forces of the market.
Cryptocurrency as a Deciding Factor?
The final thought I had was whether Cryptocurrency was wielded masterfully as a political tool, in a manner that actually made a difference. In the absence of low voter turnout and the equally bad parties - I would posit that many voted on the basis of Crypto value, a benign way where a voter’s wealth can improve irrespective of ideology. The closeness of the votes intuitively feel that Crypto owners did have a meaningful impact in deciding the outcome of this election. Those without belief in Democracy can fall back on to their belief in Capital - with a far more material and “tangible” impact to themselves.
NB: I use the term “Democratic Capitalism” to roughly describe the current prevailing system, and have done zero reading and have zero understanding if this is a term actually used by academics in the field, who (i guess) have their own proper definition.
Written with a free flowing mind, as I return back to Singapore from a break in the Phillipines.