I’ve been into this field for a while. studied in 2016. now worked and wokring for two climate hardware technology startups.
Perhaps, for a topic so deeply rooted in noise, change and transition, its worth relooking each year to see how my views have (or have not) changed.
What has Maintained
An Anti-catastrophic mindset
I dont deny the issues, climate change is real, but I continue to maintain an antagonistic view against angsty activitists and doomsayers. Generally a lack of proper advocacy and inability to understand the trade offs hinders meaningful actions. Lots of loud noises, but unproductive.
The book “Factfulness” comes to mind - to recognise that quality of life has improved immensely over time. But this is a trade off, pollution, energy vs many things and quality of life they enjoy.
The anti-advocacy angst
There also continues to be a huge hypocrisy at the systemic level too - that the materially rich ones are often the ones who are also the most “upset”. The overall point being that those who shout the loudest are often the ones who had never done the work.
They have never seen how energy is generated, and immeasurable benefits it has brought to society; never seen how modern agriculture has put food on the table.
I’ll take an educated guess and suggest that in “those” sort of sustainability communities, the make up of technicians and farmers are low. How many are students? How many are workers in marketing /PR; and what is the real proportion of people who are developing a meaningful product to change things?
I would exhaust myself, trying to reiterate where I think the real needle movers might be:
While there are more green “products” coming onto the market, I still feel the whole industry around accounting, services, software and consulting are enablers, but not quite “doers”.
Who are the doers?
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The man installing solar panels, on a hot day in a hi-vis vest
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The scientist, tinkering on new materials and manufacturing technologies to achieve the next berakthrough (sodium ion batteries has been quite exciting in 2023)
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The engineer designing new boats, cars, planes and power plants
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Electrical grid upgrades
And making all of the above, as accessible, cheap and safe as possible.
A commentary in defence of plastics
This is a world deeply reliant on plastics.
It’d be interesting to see the esecond order effects strongly regulated such that plastics become uncompetitive (and with it, diesel, etc); and how it will shape markets in the absence of good alternatives. After all, many products come from the same feed stock.
Failing which - many aspects - Food and beverage, medical care and much more will be upended with new models.
I think cost, hygiene and convenience are all hugely beneficial features that plastics have: and cannot be taken for granted.
The disposability of plastic in regions of poor infrastructure is a match made in heaven - what happens next? In a perfect world, all governments would agree on a fixed timeline for a phase out. But the world is not fair - and different countries will be impacted at different costs. No country will be a pioneer in sacrificng their citizens and economy for the world.
The Ultimate Premium of Sustainable
Something has to give - and we are caught in a complex web and loop of trade-off, suffering and unpopular political choices. There will be a price that people will soon need to pay.
Higher costs of clean energy; the reactivation of Coal power plants, under times of great energy insecurity; There is no easy way to quantify off-peak costs. A cost of baseload power shouldn’t ever directly be compared to the cost of direct electric renewable energy. Are we on the way to building fully clean and resilient grids?
Controlling excess by whom and for what: can markets and the economy will then need to adjust to low growth and perhaps with it - comes savings, prudence and generally, less use?
What has changed, What Ive learnt
From climate mitigation to climate adaptability
I wouldn’t say this is a major change, but perhaps leaning towards a confirmation of what I’ve felt for a long time.
We are likely seeing climate issues today that are a result from emissions that came out many years ago. Systems take time to stabilise and adapt to shocks, and a lag period exists. That said, I am not sure how many years it will take for X amount of carbon emissions to lead to Y amount of drastic events or increase in temperature.
It’s clear to me that there will be more extreme weather patterns and events in the coming years. Efforts to mitigate climate change (i.e. decarbonise) is useful and should remain. But I believe adaptation will soon be very key.
On Azollas and the not-so catastrophic outcome
Somehow came across this on an online video. It resonated strongly with my interest in Steady states. It’s not be about the near term path we are on, but whats the end destination thats worth consdering to plan towards.
As it turns out, as we, a speck of dust in the greater cosmos, are still within an “ice age” period. To think that. It contextualises things too - that we’ve thrived in an anomalous period, and we are returning in some ways (no doubt caused by us) to the way things should be.
Reading about the hypothesised Azolla event and Paleoclimatology were both super interesting - in suggesting what earth is “normally” like.
To bring in the modern discussion on fossil fuels: if all our oil were azollas, being released back into the atmosphere - wouldnt this point towards a return to the temperature of XX? Is the question soon to be - how best to survive and thrive in such climates? It is a place mind you, filled with lush greenery, towering trees…and lots of reptiles. Less a favourable to mammals. But Homo Sapiens have been quite resilient havent we?
It is hardly the image of desolation and dust filled imagery of a planet undergoing heat torture. And certainly, a setting for yet another story of human resilience to be written there too.